método delphi 12
DELPHI METHOD Prediction procedure performed by a pre-selected number of experts in a specific and complex area. Its name comes from the ancient oracle of Delphos, which predicted the future. It consists of 4 stages: 1 . Selection of objectives and preparation of general question 2 . Selection of the panel of experts. 3 . Preparation and realization of the detailed set of questions. 4 . Evaluation of results . There are variations on this procedure because sometimes the selection of the problem and the preparation of the general question is preliminary to the 4 stages, existing, in reality 5 or 6, and up to three rounds of questioning, including a second round, but the concept remains the same. The technique provides quantitative predictive results on the problem. It's an anonymous participation process, an advantage, but it's expensive, and long-lasting.